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化工园区突发环境污染事故风险源分析方法研究

  
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化工园区突发环境污染事故风险源分析方法研究

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摘 要
随着化工技术不断成熟,其行业水平也在不断提高。近些年来,我国化、石化水平也有了很发展,已建成了多个大型和特大型化工、石化企业与园区。化工、化事业的发展为国家的发展贡献了巨大的财富,但是由于化工、石化行业本身具有突发性强、危害性大、有毒化学品类型多、行为复杂等特点,而且行业中风险事故是客观存在不可避免的,事故发生的概率不可能为零,其潜在危害比较大,所以对风险进行管理是非常有必要的。风险分析作为风险管理的重要环节部分,同样值得对其进行研究。
本文针对环境风险、危险源等风险相关的术语概念进行阐述,并将化工园区突发环境污染事故风险按照不同的要求分类;由指标量化的程度将风险分析方法分为定性分析方法、半定量分析方法和定量分析方法,介绍了层次分析法、专家调查法和故障树分析法等风险分析方法,总结了其中的优缺点和适用范围。
运用风险分析相关知识对钦州港石化园区进行风险分析,包括了环境风险识别与分析、筛选主要危险物质、事故类型、源项分析和源强计算。

关键词:环境污染事故;风险;分析方法;
ABSTRACT
As chemical technology matures, the industry level has been improved. In recent years, our country, the level of petrochemical have very development, has built a number of large and super large chemical industry, petrochemical enterprises and the park. The development of chemical industry, contributed to the development of national wealth, but due to the chemical industry, petrochemical industry itself is harmful to the sudden strong, the great, the types of toxic chemicals, behavior more complex characteristics, and in the industry risk accident is inevitable objective existence, the probability of accident aren't zero, its potential harm is bigger, so the risk management is very necessary. Risk analysis as a important part of risk management, it is also worth to study.
In this paper, based on the status quo of environmental risk analysis, combining with the characteristics of chemical industry risk, the following discussion:
On the development of environmental risk analysis related elaboration, understand the risk analysis from the perspective of historical development, provide the basis for further risk analysis research; Summarizes the characteristics of chemical industry environmental pollution accident risk, and significance of the risk analysis is put forward.
Of environmental risk and hazard risk related terminology concept is expounded, and the chemical industry park of sudden environmental pollution accident risk according to the requirements of different classification; By quantifying the degree of risk analysis methods can be divided into qualitative analysis and semi-quantitative analysis method and quantitative analysis method, this paper introduces the analytic hierarchy process, expert investigation method and risk analysis methods, such as fault tree analysis, summarizes the advantages and disadvantages and applicable range of them.
Risk analysis of related knowledge to risk analysis of QinZhou port petrochemical park, including the selection of environmental risk identification and analysis, the main dangerous substances, accident type and the source term analysis and source strength calculation.
Keywords:Environmental pollution accident;risk;Analysis method
目录

第一章 绪论 1
1.1环境风险源分析的进展及存在的问题 1
1.1.1 环境风险源分析的进展 1
1.1.2环境风险源分析存在的问题 2
1.2重大环境污染事故回顾 2
1.3化工及环境污染事故风险的特点 4
1.3.1 化工行业的特点 4
1.3.2 化工行业事故风险的特点 4
1.4课题研究的内容与意义 5
第2章 化工园区环境污染事故风险源概述 6
2.1环境风险源分析的相关概念 6
2.1.1风险源 6
2.1.2风险 6
2.1.3风险分析 7
2.1.4风险管理 7
2.2化工园区突发环境污染事故风险分类 8
2.2.1化工园区环境污染事故风险源分类 8
2.2.2 化工园区突发环境污染事故分类 8
2.2.3化工园区环境污染事故风险源分布及危害 9
第三章 风险源分析方法概述 11
3.1 风险源分析方法的分类 11
3.2环境风险源分析方法介绍 11
3.2.1头脑风暴法 11
3.2.2德尔菲方法 12
3.2.3层次分析法 13
3.2.4故障树分析法 15
3.2.5蒙特卡罗模拟 16
3.3 风险源分析方法的选择 18
第四章 风险源的源项分析 20
4.1源项分析 20
4.1.1 源项分析的概念 20
4.1.2 源项分析程序 20
4.2源项分析案例 21
4.2.1 源项分析对象 21
4.2.2 系统、子系统及单元的划分 21
4.2.3 环境风险源辨识 21
4.2.4 重大危险源辨识 23
4.2.5 筛选主要危险物质 24
4.2.6事故类型、源项分析 25
第5章 结论与展望 29
5.1 结论 29
5.2展望 29
参考文献 32
附录一 33
附录二 38
  
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